American and decimal odds

Decimal odds include the stake in the potential return.

Decimal odds include the stake in the potential return. At 2.50, a winning stake of 100 returns 250, of which 150 is profit before any fees or taxes. The same price is +150 in American format or 3/2 in fractional format. A losing settled stake has a different outcome: this is not expected profit.

The reciprocal of 2.50 is 40%, an implied probability rather than an independent forecast. For a full market, add the reciprocals of all mutually exclusive outcomes from the same bookmaker and timestamp. A total above 100% is the overround. Dividing each reciprocal by the total removes it proportionally, but does not reveal the true probabilities.

Practical checklist

  1. Match the same event, market and settlement rules.
  2. Record when the price was observed and whether fees apply.
  3. Treat implied probability as a price-derived figure, not a guaranteed forecast.

Useful next steps