Illustrative example: a contract costs 0.40 and pays 1 for “yes” or 0 for “no”. Before fees, the result is +0.60 or −0.40. Price alone does not establish the event probability; other contracts may have different payout structures.
How an event contract works
The outcome depends on the exact event wording, deadline and settlement source. Similar headlines can describe different conditions.
Practical checklist
- Match the same event, market and settlement rules.
- Record when the price was observed and whether fees apply.
- Treat implied probability as a price-derived figure, not a guaranteed forecast.